Published October 7, 2026 in Market Update

Sellers Lead Here, But Price Range Changes What You Keep

By Cyndi Bell

Real estate, Vibes Pro

You have probably heard that low supply is good for sellers. That part is true. Under 4 months favors sellers, and over 6 favors buyers. At 3.2 months, this market sits well inside seller territory. I pulled every listing through October 1, 2026 to see what that actually means at the closing table.

What the supply number does not tell you is how much of your asking price you walk away with. That answer changes depending on what you ask.

What the numbers actually say

893 lived-in homes sold in this market. The typical home sold for $485,000 and closed at 95.9% of what it first asked. That means the typical seller gave up about 4 cents on every dollar they asked for.

But look at what happened by price range. Homes priced between $500K and $600K closed at 96.5% of what they first asked. Homes priced between $600K and $750K closed at 96.4%. Both of those bands held up better than any other price range in this market.

Homes priced under $400K closed at 95% of their first price. Homes at $750K and up closed at 95.5%. Neither is a disaster, but both gave up more than the $500K to $600K and $600K to $750K bands did.

The monthly trend tells another story worth knowing. Homes that sold in May 2026 closed at 98.1% of their first price. June 2026 came in at 97.2%. April was 97.5%. Go back to October 2025, and that number was 94%. The market has tightened meaningfully in the last six months.

The first half of the file, August 2025 through March 2026, averaged 94.5%. The second half, March 2026 through October 2026, averaged 96.9%. That 2.4-point swing is real money on a $485,000 home.

Three things I would do differently if I were selling now

First, I would price in the $500K to $600K range if my home supports it. That range closed at 96.5% of first price, the best of any group. Pricing just below a round number to land in that band is worth the conversation.

Second, I would not wait for spring. The data already shows that the second half of this file outperformed the first. The typical sold price rose from $468,500 in the first half to $500,000 in the second. Sellers who listed after March 2026 did better, and we are still in that window.

Third, I would not count on a bidding war. There were 25 in this file. The last one went under contract on August 15, and 39 lived-in homes have gone under contract since then with none going over asking by 3% or more. That streak may not last, but I would price to sell, not to spark a war.

What this means for you

If you are selling, the supply number is on your side, but your price is the thing that decides how much you keep. Homes in the $500K to $600K range closed at 96.5% of first price. Homes under $400K closed at 95%. That 1.5-point gap matters. Price carefully from the start, because none of the 219 homes for sale right now have dropped their price yet, which means you have not seen what happens when they do. It is also worth knowing that 4 bedrooms was the most active group in this market, with 404 homes sold and a typical price of $554,000. If your home fits that profile, you are in the deepest part of the buyer pool.

If you are buying, the national picture is different from what you see here. Nationally, supply rose to a 4.9-month supply in August, the highest in over a decade, per NAR. This market sits at 3.2 months, which is tighter. Rates are also higher: the 30-year fixed averaged 7.28% as of October 1, 2026, up from 6.34% a year ago, per Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. Buyers using loans still closed at 96.4% of asking price here, so there is not much room to push hard on price. Come in reasonable and move quickly when you find the right home.